A Fuzzy Cyber-Risk Analysis Model for Assessing Attacks on the Availability and Integrity of the Military Command and Control Systems

The increasing complexity in Military Command and Control (C2) systems has led to greater vulnerability due to system availability and integrity caused by internal vulnerabilities and external threats. Several studies have proposed measures of availability and integrity for the assets in the C2 systems using precise and certain measures (i.e., the exact number of attacks on the availability and the integrity, the number of countermeasures for the availability and integrity attacks, the effectiveness of the availability and integrity countermeasure in eliminating the threats, and the financial impact of each attack on the availability and integrity of the assets). However, these measures are often uncertain in real-world problems. The source of uncertainty can be vagueness or ambiguity. Fuzzy logic and fuzzy sets can represent vagueness and ambiguity by formalizing inaccuracies inherent in human decisionmaking. In this paper, the authors extend the risk assessment literature by including fuzzy measures for the number of attacks on the availability and the integrity, the number of countermeasures for the availability and integrity attacks, and the effectiveness of the availability and integrity countermeasure in eliminating these threats. They analyze the financial impact of each attack on the availability and integrity of the assets and propose a comprehensive cyber-risk assessment system for the Military C2 in the fuzzy environment. Madjid Tavana La Salle University, USA & University of Paderborn, Germany Dawn A. Trevisani Air Force Research Laboratory, USA Dennis T. Kennedy La Salle University, USA